The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. !! [10] Angus Madisson. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Drop file here. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . 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In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. But is it? This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. Something went wrong, please try again later. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Read more. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . By Alan Dupont. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Agree with all comments . Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Updated at 01.00 EST On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. (including Australia). Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). they wont need to invade, they will own us. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' [8] Gabriel Kolko. Don't miss a thing! Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. But the nation is not in a good place. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. China to INVADE Australia? Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. God help our descendents. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. Based on history, a war is in the making. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". New York: Free Press, 1992. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. [5] Andrew Browne. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. [2] Hugh White. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. I find this piece troubling. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. 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